Since the start of my mandate, I have been engaging in many efforts to help find a Venezuelan-led political solution to the Venezuelan crisis (see here and here). In particular, we have sent an EU mission to observe the regional and municipal elections in 2021. But sadly, these efforts, like those of many other actors, have not been successful so far. That is why we support President Petro’s initiative to break the current deadlock and create a new dynamic.

The humanitarian situation remains dire

The humanitarian situation remains dire in Venezuela, despite some improvement in 2022 due in particular to an increase in oil revenues. According to the latest figures shared by EU partners, around 20 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance out of a population of 29 million. And more than 7.2 million Venezuelans have had to flee their country, most of them living in the Latin America and Caribbean countries, which have shown exceptional solidarity despite the difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation. Since 2018, the EU has provided €540 million to alleviate this migration crisis, principally in Ecuador, Peru and Colombia. Last March, the Solidarity Conference with Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants and their host countries, organised jointly by the EU and Canada in Brussels, raised a total of €815 million. However, the needs are much bigger and the Venezuelan refugees deserve to be able to go back to their homeland.

Venezuela is potentially one of the richest countries in the world, given its oil and gas resources. Venezuelan oil production reached almost 3 million barrels per day in 2002. Currently, Venezuela produces four time less oil and would need $12 billion in investment a year to upgrade its infrastructure. Venezuela also has 197 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves of natural gas, a figure that ranks it in eighth place worldwide. However, it has not resulted in major gas production yet. On the contrary, Venezuela is the world's largest emitter of methane in the atmosphere and burns 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day, equivalent to the consumption of medium-sized countries, which is catastrophic from both an economic and environmental point of view. The world must radically reduce the use of fossil fuels in coming years and the EU is doing its homework on this track. However, in the short term, it would obviously make sense to use this Venezuelan gas to replace Russian gas in Europe. 

The Mexico negotiation process

To find a political solution to the Venezuelan crisis, a negotiation process was launched two years ago in Mexico City between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform of the opposition but it stalled a few months later. This process resumed last November and a humanitarian agreement was signed by the parties to channel $3 billion from Venezuelan frozen assets abroad to a UN-managed Trust Fund to finance humanitarian needs in Venezuela.

“It is urgent to cut a deal to hold free, fair and inclusive elections for the upcoming presidential and legislative ballots foreseen in 2024.”

However, since then, this agreement has not been implemented, blocking the next round of negotiations on political matters. It is however urgent to cut a deal to hold free, fair and inclusive elections for the upcoming presidential and legislative ballots foreseen in 2024. Our 2021 Election Observation Mission made recommendations to ensure a transparent electoral process in line with international standards. The implementation of these recommendations would help secure next year's elections. 

The Venezuelan crisis cannot last five more years

If these elections do not take place in conditions where their results can be recognised by the Venezuelan people as well as the international community, it would mean that the political crisis that started in 2015 is set to last another 5 years. And neither the Venezuelan people nor their neighbours could bear this.

The international community must therefore do everything it can to ensure that the Venezuelan government and the Unitary Platform reach an agreement on this matter quickly. The international community must also be ready, and above all coordinated, to support this agreement when it will be reached.  

A more favourable regional context

Given the current impasse and Colombia’s major interests in its relations with Venezuela, President Petro’s initiative to try to revive the Mexico negotiation process makes sense and is welcome. It is the first time that a country in the region has organised an international event to help Venezuela emerge from its crisis. With the election of Presidents Petro in Colombia, Boric in Chile and Lula in Brazil and the recent reopening of borders and re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Colombia, Brazil and Venezuela, the regional context has become more favourable to a constructive dialogue with Caracas.

The region is now in a position to exert a positive influence on the Venezuelan-led negotiation process and put the country on the road to democracy and respect for human rights. These changes have opened a window of opportunity to solve the Venezuelan crisis. However, this window will close if an agreement is not reached on the 2024 elections in the coming weeks. We must seize this opportunity.

“Urgent, genuine and reciprocal commitments are required from all actors involved in the Venezuelan crisis.”

Urgent, genuine and reciprocal commitments are required from all actors involved. All stakeholders must play their part with compromises that are difficult, but necessary, to achieve the re-institutionalisation of Venezuela and the well-being of the Venezuelan people.

The EU ready to play its part

During the conference, I stressed again that the EU is ready to play its part, supporting progress made at the dialogue table in Mexico through its diplomatic and cooperation instruments. If there are genuine steps towards free and fair elections in Venezuela, we are also ready to review our sanctions, which are aimed exclusively at those responsible for acting against fundamental human rights and not targeting the economy and the ordinary Venezuelan people.

In Bogota, I met bilaterally with Jon Finer, Deputy National Security adviser of the US, and Senator Chris Dodd, Special Presidential adviser for the Americas to discuss these issues. The United States is indeed one of the main foreign actors and its contribution is essential to break the current deadlock. The US representative announced during the conference that his country is willing to engage with the Venezuelan government.

I also met Celso Amorim, special advisor to President Lula. We exchanged views on Venezuela, of course, but also on the war of aggression against Ukraine after President Lula’s comments on this issue in recent days.  I welcomed Brazil's votes against this aggression at the United Nations and all Europeans want of course peace, as does President Lula. The Ukrainians are the ones that want peace in the first place. However, this peace must be just and there can be no equidistance between the aggressor and the aggressed. If Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the war will stop. If we stop helping Ukraine and Ukraine stops defending itself, Ukraine disappears. To be just and lasting, the peace we must seek, must be in accordance with the United Nations Charter.

I also discussed with Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister of San Vicente and Grenadinas, who is currently chairing CELAC, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which brings together 33 countries, our preparations of the EU-CELAC summit that will be held in Brussels in July.

The beginning of a coordinated effort

The Bogota conference did not bring a breakthrough on the complex Venezuelan issue but it marked the beginning of a coordinated effort by a group of 20 countries to revive the Venezuelan-led negotiation process. Most of the work will now take place behind the scenes, as is necessary for any effective diplomacy.