Thank you dear Wolfgang for these kind words,

Trustees,

Dear friends,

I am very happy to be here in Berlin today to and truly honoured to accept this prize. It is a great honour, together with my two good friends, Evika [Silina] and Ingrida [Simonyte] to be recognised for our contributions to transatlantic relations. 

Many thanks to the American Academy and to the many sponsors of the Kissinger Prize endowment for this honour.

Dear friends, 

There are some months when nothing seems to happen and others that seem to last a lifetime.

I think we can all agree this is one of those months. 

And we all feel it. 

Summits, critically important meetings, new partners, old accusations, and a whole host of falsehoods pushed at us from our phones, every minute, every day.

My thumbs are tired from doomscrolling and I’ll bet yours are, too.

In dizzying situations like this, I find it helpful to consider the past as we confront the uncertain future.

For instance tonight, here in this beautiful building on Pariser Platz, I find myself thinking of my first trip to Berlin as a child. I’ve told this story many times so I’m sure many of you have heard it. 

My parents had brought my brother and me here on a family trip in 1988 from still-occupied Estonia. It was very unusual to get out of the Soviet Union, but things had already started to change. 

We took a family photo in front of the Brandenburg Gate, right next to those metal barriers that were placed about 200 meters to the east of the Gate.  

Many of you will remember that scene: metal gates on this side and the horrifying curve of the Berlin Wall on the other side of the Gate. 

And on the other side of the Berlin Wall was the West.  So for our photo, we stood as close as possible to the West.

It was then that my father told me and my brother, “kids, breathe in deeply, that’s the air of freedom that comes from the other side.”

It seems incredible that this scene happened just a few steps from where we are sitting tonight. 

This is my personal reflection of that moment of change in Europe, thirty plus years ago.

Henry Kissinger, as a historian, reflected a great deal more on the broader meaning of change, or Wende.

In particular, he focussed on the change brought about by the end of the Cold War for transatlantic relations, in his 1994 book, “Diplomacy.” 

In the book, Kissinger notes that the early 1990s was the third time in the 20^th century when America would play a major role in shaping the new world order.

This was the change that meant it was possible for our own three countries to breathe the air of freedom at home.

Were he alive today, I believe the namesake of today’s prize would agree:  we are now in another time of massive change.

But I must say I am not sure that it is as positive as the change in the early 1990s.

The historians of the future will most likely count the start of that change with Russia’s war against Georgia in 2008. 

Then there were other ugly milestones along the way.

2014 with the invasion of the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea. 

But the real shift came in February 24 of 2022, three years ago, when Russia launched its full scale, illegal, unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine.

Two weeks after this invasion began, I was invited, as prime minister of Estonia, to address the European Parliament. 

That day, I said that in the future, we will speak of the Before Times and the After Times. 

And so it is: we have entered a new era. 

This is an era in which our shared conviction, that cooperation is better than competition, is under doubt. 

In which the institutions of the previous era are being questioned. 

In which the world we built together after the Second World War is no longer self-evident.

But Europe is still Europe, that is for sure.

We believe in freedom, dignity, equality, prosperity. This is also our power of attraction globally, our strongest tool. 

Europeans fundamentally believe that peace in Ukraine must be just, sustainable and in line with the UN Charter.

Europeans believe Ukraine must be given the strength it needs to strive.

But in this time of change, in the After Times, how do we go forward?  

Two points.

First, our transatlantic ties. 

I think every person in this room agrees that America has been a great ally and friend. 

And I hope, I truly hope, that this will continue through the eras to come.  

Like any relationship, the transatlantic relationship is also changing. 

How we pursue this, is very much in our own hands. 

For example, this month, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy published an interesting study.

To replace US aid flows to Ukraine and keep the total support at the same level, Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. 

This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltic countries are already doing.

It is on par with what Poland and the Netherlands are doing. 

Europe as a whole would need to follow the Scandinavian example, or Poland’s.

On military aid, replacing the US, if we had to, would be more challenging, but would be possible in many domains. 

The study shows weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. 

So I do believe we should be more conscious of our capabilities and aware of what we could do, if we choose to. 

Second, and linked to this, is the question of how to build on our strength and wield what we have. 

We have plans and strategies in place but we need to find the funding and implement these plans and strategies.

Because the best way to face threats is always to stay ahead of them. 

There’s no excuse to be unprepared.

And we cannot be weak in a world being shaped through strength.

Germany understands this. 

The German parliament took an historic decision last week. 

Passing these constitutional reforms will unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defence spending. 

I salute incoming chancellor for his leadership and the lawmakers from his party, but also from the SPD and the Greens who made this happen.

But strength is not just a matter of ramping up our defence industry, boosting military spending and coordinating our procurements.

The European Union’s real strength lies in unity.

Our strength comes from who we are and how we work internally. 

Within the EU, we must make maximum use of the tools we have at our disposal. 

I am talking about the institutions, procedures and policies we have already agreed upon among ourselves.

They offer the flexibility to get done what needs to get done. 

Again, if we agree to do so. 

If we cannot, we bring those who are willing together.

Coalitions of the willing are a work-around in times of overwhelming urgency. 

They give us a way of cooperating much closer with our like-minded partners outside the EU. 

I can tell you in my current position that we have lots of interest from partners all across the world to work more closely with the EU on security matters.

We should look at how to translate the results of “coalitions of the willing” into more effective ways of working together as the European Union. 

Because in the past “coalitions of the willing” have always driven progress towards a more united Europe, be it for the free movement of people under the Schengen rules or in the construction of the eurozone. 

We need to see our work on security and defence formed through the same kind of steps;

a willingness of some leading to more unity for all, and the European Union working as one.

Dear friends,

The challenges we face may feel existential, but this is the nature of a new era. 

I see this rather as an opportunity for the reflection and action that such a period requires. 

Let me conclude by coming back to the start, to Henry Kissinger. 

Kissinger chose to close the final chapter of his book “Diplomacy” by referring to a well-loved poem by Spanish poet Antonio Machado. I quote from the poem: 

“Traveller, there is no road;

you make your own road as you walk.

as you walk, you make your own road,

and when you look back

you see the path

you will never travel again.”

Europe, America, we are all finding ourselves in a new world order. And all of us are making our own new road. 

But we mustn’t forget we have a choice in the steps we take. 

A choice in what we make of this new change, this new Wende.

We must grab the opportunities it gives us but without changing who we are or what we stand for. 

Because herein lies our real strength.

Thank you.