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Good afternoon, bon après-midi,  

Merci, ma chère Ludivine [Dedonder], merci Madame la ministre [de la défense de Belgique], for hosting us here in the Egmont Palace, a very nice place. I envy you for having these wonderful premises – much better than the one we have at the Berlaymont. It is a pleasure to be here.

We have had a very interesting Defence Ministers’ Council. I think it has been one of the most dense, intense, and frank and open discussion that I have had during my mandate. 

First, we discussed about our military support to Ukraine. I reiterated the urgency – urgency is the key word - to agree on further military support for the short and, also, for the long term.  

First, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Mr [Rustem] Umerov updated us via video message on the situation in the battlefield and briefed us on Ukraine’s needs and priorities. 

It is important that today we have shared with Member States an aggregated data for our support to Ukraine. 

Since the start of the Russian invasion – almost two years ago – the European Union and Member States, all together, because my role here is to talk about all of us, not each one but all of us. All of us (the European Union Member States, European Institutions), we have provided and placed – this figure is very important – €28 billion of military equipment until now. This is not a forecast, this is not a prevision, [it] is [a] reality. €28 billion of military support to Ukraine until now. 

Then we asked the Member States about their commitments for this year. I still do not have a complete answer, but many Member States have sent their inputs, and I can say that, at least it is going to be €21 billion being budgeted for 2024 for military assistance to Ukraine. You can see the acceleration. In a single year – ad minimum because there are still some Member States pending - €21 billion compared to €28 billion in the two first years. It is as much in one year than previously in two years. 

This is only part of the picture, because there are other significant positive trends. First, because I expect more information from Member States. 

And second, because there is another milestone, and I want to insist on the importance, with our training mission [EUMAM Ukraine]. We have almost reached the target of 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained through our training mission in Ukraine.  

Today, we have agreed to add an additional 20,000 soldiers, and this will put the bar at 60,000 soldiers trained in total. This figure will be reached – 60,000 – by the end of [the] summer. And you know that good training means saving lives in the battlefield. 

Then, we discussed in [depth] about our ammunition initiative. Here, I want to clarify things. I hope I will give you concrete and precise information [about] production capacity, production and the ones that have [been] provided to Ukraine. 

Last year, the European Union and the Member States committed to deliver 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine within one year. 

Based on the latest information received from Member States - and I stress again these figures keep evolving on a daily basis, not all Member States have already sent their inputs, but with the overall picture at that moment - I can say that, since last March until now – the beginning of this year -, we have already delivered 330,000 ammunition rounds. So, [we have reached around] one third of the objective, mainly taken from our stockpiles, from existing stocks.  

By March – today – I expect this figure will be increased by around 200,000 more, thus reaching 524,000. It is a little bit more - [so] 52% of the objective. This comes from destocking, and individual and joint procurement.  

But this is a work in progress. The whole machinery here at the European defence industry is working and Member States are passing commands. 

By the end of the year, the plan deliveries will reach more than 1 million, because the figure on the pipeline amounts to 630,000. I said it is pending formal confirmation, but I therefore can estimate that we will have delivered to Ukraine more than 1 million rounds of ammunition by the end of this year. 

This is the picture I currently have in terms of deliveries done or planned – and I insist, everyday it changes. It keeps evolving and increasing, and it will continue increasing. The situation will continue to improve in the coming months.  

A different thing is production capacity. Between production capacity and production, there is something called “command”: I can produce if someone wants to buy my production. But to start with, we need production capacity. If there is no production capacity, you cannot produce. 

Well, Commissioner [for Internal Market, Thierry] Breton and the European Defence Agency have been checking what is the level of production capacity. And it is good news that the production capacity has increased by 40% since the beginning of the war.  

We were at the very low level of our [defence] technological and industrial base, and it has been increasing. We have to continue increasing, but 40% is quite a lot. 

Today, the production capacity for ammunition is almost 1 million ammunition per year. But by the end of the year, it will reach 1.4 million. It will continue increasing because the industry has been mobilised, is producing more, the capacity of production increases and as [long] as more commands are passed to the industry, the production will increase. 

[The] production capacity will reach 1.4 million by the end of the year, so we will be in a good situation to continue producing. 

For that, the European Defence Agency has signed 60 framework [contracts] for the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition. 

These contracts have the remaining spare capacity for an estimated volume of €1.5 billion – and I have encouraged today Member States to place orders. 

So, the industrial capacity, 1.4 million at the end of the year, delivered to Ukraine something more than 1 million by the end of the year.  

We also continued our discussion on the Ukraine Assistance Fund, ahead of tomorrow’s European Council.  

The Fund would address Ukraine’s most pressing needs, maximise the European Union’s added value. Discussions are continuing, are ongoing on the basis of the latest proposal I have put on the table.  

It has been well received but the European leaders will meet tomorrow., and we will continue discussing about it.  

We discussed also about the European Defence Industrial Strategy.  

At the last December meeting, the European Council called upon me, High Representative for Security Policy and the [European] Commission, in coordination with the European Defence Agency, to swiftly present a European Defence Industrial Strategy. How to increase the industrial and technological base of our defence by increasing our industrial capacity.  

We need to move from an emergency mode in support to Ukraine – we are now in an emergency mode – to a long-term approach in order to strengthen our defence industry. Member States expressed a strong commitment to this strategy that will be presented first to the [European] Commission, and after to the European Council end February/early March.  

Lastly, during our lunch – and thank you for this lunch, Minister - we discussed two regions of common interest: the Red Sea and the Sahel. We did that in presence of our partners from the United Nations, NATO and also invited the European Parliament. 

You know that the maritime security in the Red Sea has significantly deteriorated over the last weeks. 

We are very much advancing the work of a new maritime operation – it will be called ASPIDES, named after the Ancient Greek word for “shield”. It is a shield in order to act in purely defensive mode to protect merchant vessels, and two non-executive tasks of “accompanying” to deter with [its] presence and to strengthen maritime situational awareness.  

It will be deployed at sea, with ships and air assets, proportional to the threat we are facing. This mission ASPIDES will not conduct any operation on land – only at sea, in a purely defensive mode. 

Our goal is to establish and launch this mission ASPIDES, at the latest on the 19^th of February. I hope and I am sure it will [be]. We will. Member States are strongly committed to that. Not of all of them will participate but no one is going to obstruct it. 

We started discussing about the Sahel. It is a lot of complexity on the political and security situation. We have to adapt our policies to the new reality. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have withdrawn from ECOWAS and, following the revocation by the junta in Niger of the legal agreements for our two CSDP missions last December, our military partnership mission with Niger [EUMPM Niger] has left the country.  

Preparations are underway for the withdrawal of our civilian mission, EUCAP Sahel Niger, by June this year.  

And then, in the following days and meetings, we will make decisions about our military mission in Mali [EUTM Mali], since its mandate is approaching [an] end in May. We have to coordinate the different approaches of different Member States about our strategic approach to the Sahel. 

We will present a new country-by-country approach at the next Foreign Affairs Council in February, including engagement to our policies on security and defence. 

This is everything.  

Keep in mind this figure: 330,000 [ammunition] already delivered, 524,000 to be delivered by March, 1,100,000 to be delivered by the end of the year. Production capacity: 40% increase, 1 million by March, 1.4 million by the end of the year, military support €28 billion already mobilised, and so far, €21 billion planned for 2024. But this figure will increase because I am still pending confirmation from some Member States. 

Thank you. 

Thank you, minister. 

Q&A 

Q. Une question pour le haut représentant concernant la mission ASPIDES en mer Rouge. Je ne doute pas que d’autres questions concerneront l’Ukraine, ce qui est évidemment encore plus important. Sur ASPIDES, on a par exemple entendu le ministre italien [Guido Crosetto] plaider pour davantage de rapidité à la mise en œuvre de cette mission - même si elle est quand même déjà bien engagée. Est-ce que vous pourriez dire si aujourd’hui des décisions ont été prises, ne serait-ce qu’informellement, sur le quartier général de la mission, sur son commandement, sur quelques règles d’engagement plus précises que ce que vous avez dit jusqu’ici ? À savoir, pas d’opération au sol sur le sol yéménite. 

Á propos de la Mission ASPIDES, la vérité est qu’on va très vite. C’est peut-être la mission qui a été forgée et sera mise en œuvre le plus rapidement, de ce que je me rappelle. Évidemment, il y a de l’urgence mais je suis tout à fait d’accord avec le ministre italien – j’ai tendance à être toujours d’accord avec mes collègues ministres. Il faut le faire vite et on le fait vite. Je pense que le 19 février, la mission pourra être formalisée, approuvée. Aujourd’hui, ce n’était pas un Conseil [décisionnel], c’était un débat politique. Et oui, on a déjà, du point de vue politique, accordé tous les paramètres dont vous avez fait mention, qui seront formalisés le 19 février. 

Q. This morning, High Representative mentioned [an] imbalance on fire capacity on the frontline. Could you reveal some numbers? How serious is this imbalance? How much these new rounds which will be produced could change on the frontline? 

About the unbalance on the battlefield, I am not going to review concrete figures - certainly not - but it is true that Ukraine needs more support. And this is the message that I passed to the Member States: You have to do more and quicker. Because in the frontline, the battle is fierce, and Ukraine needs more support, and the supply line has to be more intense in order to provide the Ukrainian army with the ammunition they need.  

Q. Minister, you said figures don't lie and one of the figures that you have given today says that you're only going to be at 52% of your target when it comes to the delivery of 1 million rounds of shells to Ukraine. What is your explanation as to why you have fallen so far short of the target? Was it a mistake to set the target? What lessons do you draw from this figure? 

Et écoutez, permettez-moi d'être volontairement positif. Il ne s'agissait pas de dire le 31 mars à minuit, c’est le deadline. Il s'agit de créer un élan. Il s'agit de fixer un but et de tendre les capacités de production et les identifier, parce qu’à l'époque, quand on a dit ça, elles n’étaient pas bien identifiées. Mais on a dit un chiffre important à une échéance d’un an – mars [2023 à] mars [2024].  

Je pense qu'on doit être assez satisfaits de ce qu'on a réussi à faire. Augmenter la capacité de production de l'industrie [de] 40%. Effectivement donner à l'Ukraine – donner - plus d'un demi-million de munitions et savoir que les chaines de production sont en marche, les commandes sont en train de se passer et qu'à la fin de l'année, il y aura un nouveau but - on sera au rendez-vous à Noël pour savoir si on l'a atteint ou pas – de 1,1 million. Je ne sais pas, peut-être dans trois mois, on aura déjà atteint le million mais je ne peux pas le savoir parce que c'est un processus qui change tous les jours. Mais on a pris de la vitesse. Il y [avait] une inertie initiale, c'est-à-dire que l’on sait que l’inertie c’est ce qui empêche le mouvement de commencer. Mais une fois que le mouvement a commencé, c'est ce mouvement même qui augmente. Les usines se sont mises à travailler, ils ont augmenté [leurs capacités]. On a donné des frameworks [contracts] for joint procurement. Les États membres donnent des financements.  

Oui d'accord, le 31 mars à minuit il n’y avait pas le million mais it is work in progress, et je pense que ça va bien finir et que ça va créer une dynamique positive. On va atteindre un plafond, puis on va continuer d'une façon permanente. Parce que vous savez cette histoire, malheureusement, ce n’est pas fini. Ce n'est pas fini. L'Europe doit augmenter ses capacités de défense. Aujourd'hui, pour aider l'Ukraine et de mêmes pour nous aider nous-mêmes, il faut remonter la base industrielle et technologique de la défense. 

Q. Je voulais juste clarifier sur la mer Rouge. Comment est-ce que vous allez coordonner avec la mission américaine ? Parce que vous avez quelques pays de l'UE qui sont déjà dans la mission américaine, comme les Pays-Bas et le Danemark. Est-ce que vous allez avoir des officiers de liaison ? Comment est-ce que ça va marcher ? La question aussi se pose sur la Belgique parce que je crois que vous avez annoncé l'envoi de la frégate il y a deux semaines alors que la mission de l'Union européenne n'avait pas encore été actée et qu’il y avait que la mission américaine. Donc je voulais juste comprendre comment les deux travailleraient ensemble, comme vous allez être tous les deux présents en parallèle. 

Il s’agit de deux missions différentes. Les Etats-Unis sont les “leaders” d’une coalition dans laquelle il y a un certain nombre de pays européens qui participent. D'autres pays européens n'ont pas voulu participer à une mission [menée] par les États-Unis, ils ont préféré bâtir la propre mission de l'Union européenne. On a essayé d'abord d’élargir le mandat de la mission ATALANTA, ça n'a pas marché. Je pense que finalement c'était une bonne idée de créer une mission ad hoc parce que c’est une fonction vraiment bien identifiée du point de vue fonctionnel et géographique, et aussi du point de vue de la durée. Donc je pense qu'à la fin, “no hay mal que por bien no venga”, comme on dit en espagnol. Il n’y a pas de mal qui n’apporte pas de bien. On a finalement créé une mission ad hoc avec toutes ces capacités. Et évidemment, on va se coordonner avec les autres missions. Je ne sais pas comment est-ce qu’on va le faire, mais ça c’est de l'affaire très technique. Mais il va y avoir une coordination parfaite avec une autre mission qui poursuit les mêmes buts. Mais pour nous, c'est clair, la mission est purement défensive. Pas question d'entamer des opérations de combat contre le sol yéménite. Ça va être défensif. On va défendre les bateaux et on va s’auto-défendre - évidemment, ces bateaux vont devoir s’auto-défendre - en poursuivant l'accompagnement et la protection des bateaux. Et ça, c'est une mission clairement identifiée et ça va se passer avec l’étroite coordination avec les autres partenaires occidentaux qui sont déployés dans la mer Rouge.  

Link to the video: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-252280