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Publication: From early warning to early action?

People looking for survivors

© David Sauveur / Agence VU

From early warning to early action?

The debate on the enhancement of the EU's Crisis Response capability continues

[309 KB]

Firestone rubber tree plantation. In terms of natural resources, Liberia is one of West Africa"s richest countries. Before the war, Firestone was Liberia"s main source of income along with diamonds, copper, iron ore and timber.

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Adela Mujić, 20 years. "I remember everything, but please don"t ask, I don"t like to talk about it. I"ve never cried".

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I returned to the hospital after a week in the Delta area and entered an empty hospital room. Sunita had died that morning. In her village, by the side of the road that would eventually lead her to her final resting place, relatives grieve by her corpse.

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Hidden among the trees, Hmong huts in the morning mist.

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Landscape of central Ramadi. Ramadi is still a battlefield for the coalition forces.

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The roofs of the buildings in the centre of Cairo are occupied by a destitute population. It is the result of a massive population growth and a rural exodus which suffocate the city of 17 million inhabitants.

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On the road between Band-Al-Amir and Bamyan, a wreck of a Russian tank.

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Table of contents

Foreword and Introduction

Foreword by the EC Commissioner for External Relations [40 KB]: By Benita Ferrero-Waldner

Acknowledgements [33 KB]: By

Introduction [90 KB]: By Andrea Ricci

Part 1: Creating Partnership in Peacebuilding

The Global conflict Barometer [251 KB]: By Nicolas Schwank and Lotta Mayer

Photo Reportage Gaza booms - Summer Rain [2 MB]: By Steve Iuncker

[309 KB]

In the city of Gaza, money is missing. The rubbish is not being picked up anymore. There is no petrol left for the garbage trucks.

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At night, at Al Bureij refugee camp - one of the longest resisting camps of the Gaza strip, after a F16 bombing.

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A woman wearing a Hamas cap during a demonstration at the Jabalya camp in favour of the Hezbollah firing against Israel.

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Waiting for a cab.

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Following to the destruction of Nessirat bridge by a F16 bombing, the travellers must walk on both sides of the bridge, until the "traxs" rebuild a road to skirt round the bridge.

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In Beit-Hanoun refugee camp, Al-Aqsa soldiers watch over the main road, which has been mined.

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Leader of the Al-Aqsa fighters in Al-Bureij camp, just before a F16 bombing of our position.

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Soldier at the funeral of one of his comrades in arms.

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A group of men under a tent in Khan-Ynounes camp.

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A soldier at the funeral of one of his comrades in arms.

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In Beit-Hanoun camp, funeral of Ahmed Shaheen, 23, shaheed of the Al-Aqsa brigade (Fatah military wing). The body is carried to the cemetery on a military truck. The boy was killed in a minibus after a F16 attack.

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In the camp of Beit-Hanoun, a child mourns for Ahmed Shaheen, 23, shaheed of the Al Aqusa brigade (military arm of the Fatah), who died in a minibus after a F16 rocket attack.

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In Beit-Hanoun camp, a woman is crying at the funerals of her brother Ahmed Shaheen, 23, a shaheed of the Al-Aqsa brigade (Fatah army wing), killed in a mini bus after a F16 attack.

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From early warning to early action - Developing the EU'sresponse to crisis and longer-term threats [69 KB]: By Benita Ferrero Waldner

Challenges for the EU in conflict prevention and peace building [84 KB]: By Martti Ahtisaari

Foreseeing conflict [87 KB]: By Johan Galtung

Interview - Human security is the key factor [73 KB]: By Angelika Beer

Interview - A European Perspective of crisis response [72 KB]: By Eneko Landaburu

Interview - Assistance in conflict must promote solution [72 KB]: By Marc Otte

Crossing the lines [91 KB]: By Shelley Anderson

Interview - Light the darkness [61 KB]: By Marguerite Barankitse

Photo reportage - After paradise [4 MB]: By Rip Hopkins

Firestone rubber tree plantation. In terms of natural resources, Liberia is one of West Africa"s richest countries. Before the war, Firestone was Liberia"s main source of income along with diamonds, copper, iron ore and timber.

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One of the 350,000 Liberian refugees living in the Ivory Coast.

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Ministry of Health. Children play in front of the half-completed "new" Ministry of Health, where 470 displaced families have taken refuge.

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African Plaza Hotel. Some 320 displaced families live in the shell of what used to be one of the most expensive hotels in Liberia.

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Palm oil production is one of the main sources of income for the local population.

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Mamba Checkpoint in the capital, Saturday evening. A boy is mistreated by ECOMOG soldiers.

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A displaced person demonstrates his wish to fly from Liberia.

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Repatriation to the countryside of some of the 700,000 displaced living in Monrovia. Of 2.5 million Liberians, an estimated 150,000-200,000 have been killed and nearly 1.5 million displaced or living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

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Save the Children funds a rehabilitation centre for child fighters. Franklin was a member of the NPFL (National Patriotic Front of Liberia). Today, aged 7, he suffers from psychological trauma brought on by the horror of the fighting.

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Save the Children funds a rehabilitation centre for child fighters. Boxing practice is intended to help the boys vent their anger and frustration.

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Save the Children funds a rehabilitation centre for child fighters. Participation in group games is encouraged during the SCF rehabilitation programme. Ex-fighters learn to become children again.

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Save the Children funds a rehabilitation centre for child fighters. Play time: a sack race. Participation in group games is encouraged during the rehabilitation programme.

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Save the Children funds a rehabilitation centre for child fighters. Every child has an allotment where they can grow vegetables. The produce is then sold to the centre, giving the children a small income.

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Part 2: Crisis Response — Mediation and Peacekeeping

Interview - Bridging the gap [75 KB]: By Christian Berger

A strategic peacbuilding partnership - from early warning by civil society to early response by the European Union [87 KB]: By Jos de la Haye

Report on the outcome of the multi-donor initiative [305 KB]: By Stefanie Dannenmann and Douglas Pattie

Photo reportage - post-war trauma and pain in Bosnia-Herzegovina [2 MB]: By Isabelle Eshraghi

Adela Mujić, 20 years. "I remember everything, but please don"t ask, I don"t like to talk about it. I"ve never cried".

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Azemina Ademović, age 41. "In my village there lived 57 men, only 7 survived. Back in 1993 my husband was hurt by an exploding shell. Being wounded saved his life, otherwise… he would not have been among us now".

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Kadira Mešanović, age 42. "The worst moments, you can never wipe them from your mind. It is always the same memories that haunt you, always the same".

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Tima Hajdarivić, 43 years. "I can"t get rid of those three months (of rape). They took me everywhere they went, from the one house to the other. I had to go to the Kochevo hospital and had all my sexual organs removed. My life as a woman is over".

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Rajiba Beganović, age 44. "When I entered the house. I recognised my mother in law because of her dress, her head had been separated from her body. I fainted".

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Rusmira Beganović, 49 years. "I went to Tuzla. I recognised the brown shoes of my husband, the ones you would get when you went to war. They were nicknamed "the shoes of death"… When I saw his shoes, I knew he would never come back again".

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Rejha Jusić, age 51. "Two years ago my son was found in a mass grave near Zvornik. Only I know how to bear this burden".

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Hamida Hukić, age 53. "I"ve seen quite some bodies in front of a house, they had cut-throat the people. They had cut the head off with an axe. It was at dawn. I can still see the axes".

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Hajrija Beganović, age 53. "I held my son close to me, they took him, they pushed him. They only wanted to ask some questions, they said. Ever since I am mad, I cannot lose this image, I cannot forget it… I do not dare to live one day without medication".

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Rujika Aljič, age 67. "In front of the bus in Potocari, a Tchetnik pointed a gun at my husband and arrested him. In a film made by the Serbs, which was broadcast on TV, I recognised him. I had to cry".

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Timka Karišik, age 83. "They never found one single body. Maybe they"ve been burnt".

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Hadžira Orić, age 28. "My husband is a survivor, a survivor of the massacre. His life has lost all sense. My husband drinks. I can"t stand it any longer".

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Interview - Earning each step [57 KB]: By Miroslav Lajcak

Interview - Preserving Status quo is dangerous [74 KB]: By Peter Semneby

Civilian peacekeeping [103 KB]: By Christine Schweitzer

Creating comprehensive action in peacbuilding - SHIFT [61 KB]: By Kalle Liesinen

Unintended consequences of peacekeeping [125 KB]: By Cedric de Coning, Chiyuki Aoi and Ramesh Thakur

Photo reportage - Women at war [2 MB]: By Philip Blenkinsop

I returned to the hospital after a week in the Delta area and entered an empty hospital room. Sunita had died that morning. In her village, by the side of the road that would eventually lead her to her final resting place, relatives grieve by her corpse.

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The road out of Nepalgunj to Bardiya is scarred by Maoist ambush sites. This particular blast claimed the lives of two women.

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Policewomen stand with batons ready, during anti-monarchy demonstrations.

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Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) women recruits outside of their Kathmandu barracks. This represents the second batch of female recruits into the RNA.

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RNA recruit, Karki Puspa, age 20. "My husband, Karki Jeevan (age 20), was killed by Maoists, ten months after we were married. I joined the army to fulfil my husband"s dream of saving the nation. We are not scared to be ambushed. We will fight."

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RNA recruit, Shrestha Ram Kumari, age 20. "My husband, Shresthaa Rambahadur (age 26), was ambushed by Maoists while on patrol in Shinduli Bhadrakali 15 months ago."

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Comrade Rojana, age 19. "I have seen women being beaten by security forces at a religious fair. Nirmala (another female Maoist combatant) and I were in the cultural team and decided to join the armed movement together."

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Comrade Nirmala, age 19, Chetri from the Mid-west hills "I joined the cultural wing of the movement when I was 16 years old. My uncle was in a cultural team and was sheltering in a village when he was killed by RNA troops two years ago.

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Comrade Bargiya, age 20, of Taru ethnicity. "I have participated in one raid, numerous encounters and five ambushes. I am not sure how many people were killed by my bullets but I am sure they died. Those I have killed deserved to be killed".

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RNA recruit, Tharu Mina Kumari, age 20. "My husband, Tharu Patiram (age 23) was killed in an ambush while patrolling in the Chitwan area. I will marry again after the war if I can find a good man."

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Comrade Rekha, age 19. "I joined the Communist Party of Nepal three years ago. My brother has been with the RNA for the last six years. I don"t want to meet him because if I am in a position to kill him on the battlefield, I will kill him."

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Arms and the girl [54 KB]: By Shelley Anderson

Streamlining of media as a CFSP instrument [78 KB]: By Bent Norby Bonde

Interview - Tuned into Sierra Leone [71 KB]: By Ambrose James

Media coverage on the tsunami in Asia vs the earthquake in Pakistan [63 KB]: By Media Tenor

Mediation as an instrument for conflict prevention and crise response [61 KB]: By Antje Herrberg

Interview - mediation based on confidence and friendship [56 KB]: By Mario Giro

Photo reportage - Hmong secret war continues, Laos [3 MB]: By Philip Blenkinsop

Hidden among the trees, Hmong huts in the morning mist.

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Hong Pao Yang, age 71. Fought with the CIA during the secret war from 1967-1975.

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We continue to approach… and this sea of humanity crumbles like a wave, crying, wailing and wailing at us (hands clasped together). We are the first white faces any of them have seen since they were abandoned by the Americans 27 years ago.

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The sea of faces that greets us is void of any expression of hope. In the centre of the image, Bang Yang, age 14, cries. Her husband, age 15, Koua Pao Lee, was killed a few days before their child was born. Yet she holds no monopoly on grief.

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Tdu Bi Xion, age 18, received shrapnel wounds in the chest from a B-41 rocket attack in December 2000 and had his left hand crippled by an AK-47 round in a separate incident.

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Sai Tong Wang, age 30, with his son, Tdu Tong, age 6. Tdu Tong was wounded in the face by a shot fired from an AK-47 on 1 November 1999.

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Yaeng Hua is 9 years old and severely traumatized. His parents were both killed during a mortar attack and as well as the shrapnel injuries he sustained, his jaw was broken by an AK-47 round.

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Pbai Lo, age 28, shot in the neck by an AK-47 round on 19 November 2001. Only four days earlier her husband, Teng Kong Wa, lost his leg to a landmine.

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Father and son.

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Teng Kong Wha, age 40, with his son, Wha Hua, age 7. Lost his right leg to a landmine on 23 November 2001, four days after his wife, Pbai Lo, was shot in the neck and leg by AK-47 rounds.

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Three generations of resistance, left to right: Song Der, age 80 (fought with the French), his son, Sai Tua, age 40, who fought with the CIA, and two of his sons, Shua Yung, age 26, and Sai, age 10, who now face the Laos Communist troops.

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A Hmong freedom fighter with his son at their hidden camp.

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On the afternoon prior to our departure, Commander Moua Toua Ther with assembled villagers delivers a message and pleas to the USA and the international community.

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A Hmong woman with her children.

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On the afternoon prior to our departure, the whole village gathers to send their collective voice to the governments of the world for their prayers to be heard and for salvation. They know that we are their only chance for survival.

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Key issues concerning the Hmong people in Laos - Thailand [64 KB]: By Carl Bjorkman

From managing the emergency to consolidating the stability [74 KB]: By Detlef W. Karioth

Interview - People are tired of war - supporting the peace process in Northern Uganda [87 KB]: By Oloo Otieno

Interview - No development without security - nonviolent peaceforce in Mindanao [65 KB]: By Atif Hameed

Swords into ploughshares [128 KB]: By Gwinyayi Albert Dzinesa

Photo reportage - Ramadi, Iraq - Alvaro Ybarra Zavala [2 MB]: By Alvaro Ybarra Zavala

Landscape of central Ramadi. Ramadi is still a battlefield for the coalition forces.

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A former member of the militia, now member of the local police of Ramadi.

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Iraqi police recruits line up to be screened at Camp Defender, an Iraqi Army base linked to the Americans" Camp Ramadi. These recruits will become part of a new quick reaction police team called the Emergency Response Unit.

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Ahmet, a former Suni militia man, now works for the special unit of the Iraqi police in the Karrada neighbourhood in Baghdad.

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Policemen from the special unit of the Karrada neighbourhood inside their base before going out on patrol.

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Iraqi police recruits line up to be screened at Camp Defender, an Iraqi Army base linked to the Americans" Camp Ramadi. These recruits will become part of a new quick reaction police team called the Emergency Response Unit.

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Lieutenant Larson and Iraqi chief of the Iraqi special police of Karranda neighbourhood preparing a mission.

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Checkpoint on the road to Ramadi from Baghadad. (Iraqi policemen are ex-members of a local Suni militia in Ramadi).

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Police unit searching a house in their own Karrada neighbourhood in Baghdad with Bravo Company, second platoon of the first cavalry division, from Fort Hood, Texas, USA.

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Policemen from the special unit of the Karrada neighbourhood inside their base before going out on patrol.

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Police unit searching a house in their own Karrada neighbourhood in Baghdad with Bravo Company, second platoon of the first cavalry division, from Fort Hood, Texas, USA

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During a house search by Iraqi police and American forces in the Karrada neighbourhood of Baghdad, a policeman grabs a little girl while her father is searched.

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Iraqi police and US army working together in a police station in Ramadi.

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Checkpoint on the road into Ramadi from Baghadad. (Iraqi policemen are ex-members of a local Suni militia in Ramadi).

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Major Megan Mc Lung, 43, from Coupeville, is taking a picture of the son of one of the most important tribal families in Ramadi, the new ally of the US army in Ramadi. One hour after this picture was taken, Major Megan Mc Lung died in an ambush.

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Part 3: Natural Disaster and Resource War

Resource competition in the 21st century [105 KB]: By Michael T. Klare

Illegal logging and the illegal trade in timber and wood products [78 KB]: By Faith Doherty

Interview - Fighting exploitation of natural resources and international trade systems [65 KB]: By Patrick Alley

WATEX - A new approach to preventing water based conflicts [327 KB]: By Alain Gachet

Short-sighted visionaries - asking for disaster [65 KB]: By Pascal Peduzzi

Is climate change increasing the frequency of hazardous events [61 KB]: By Pascal Peduzzi

Early warning and early impact analysis [66 KB]: By Amy Horton

Environmental needs in post-crisis assessments and recovery [78 KB]: By David Jensen

Part 4: Trans-regional threats, intelligible warnings and intelligent intelligence

Photo reportage - portaraits of Cairo, Egypt [2 MB]: By Denis Dailleux

The roofs of the buildings in the centre of Cairo are occupied by a destitute population. It is the result of a massive population growth and a rural exodus which suffocate the city of 17 million inhabitants.

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District of Boulaq. In the Egyptian capital, the only place to live for thousands of inhabitants is the top of the buildings. A whole world invisible from the streets, lives in tiny makeshift villages, in the open.

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In the Egyptian capital, the only place to live for thousands of inhabitants is the top of the buildings. A whole world invisible from the streets, lives in tiny makeshift villages, in the open.

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The rooftop inhabitants sleep out in the open to fight off the infernal heat of the summer nights, just like this family in the district of Boulaq — one of the working class districts of Cairo.

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Fatma, whose parents came from Nubia, rents a four-room flat in a building of Garden City. Without telling the owners, she built walls isolating her from the hundreds of other residents.

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This old woman doesn"t leave her refuge on the top of a building in Tallat Harb Street anymore. When the street is used for the president Moubarak cortège"s, policemen lock up the rooftop inhabitants in their homes.

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People live on the rooftops, pray there, and before the avian flu, they used to breed chickens and pigeons there. The roof (here, in Talaat Harb) has become a tiny village with its unspoken rules, tragedies and joys.

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District of Boulaq In the Egyptian capital, the only place to live for thousands of inhabitants is the top of the buildings. A whole world invisible from the streets; living in tiny makeshift villages out in the open. Like a city put on top of the city.

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Ibrahim by the tanners.

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In the city of the dead, the huge cemetery of Cairo, people live in mausoleums or tumbledown houses built between the graves and on the roofs.

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In Garden City, a tiny village that grew under the dish antennas. On each side of the straight alleys, families occupy one or several rooms in the huts formerly used to do the laundry.

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In Garden City, a tiny village that grew under the dish antennas. On each side of the straight alleys, families occupy one or several rooms in the huts formerly used to do the laundry.

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In the city of the dead, the huge cemetery of Cairo, people live in mausoleums or tumbledown houses built between the graves and on the roofs, where children play with kites.

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The inhabitants of the roofs rarely meet the ones of the buildings. They must take the service stairs, as in this building in Garden City. It gives witness to two worlds who live together without mixing.

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Policeman in the district of Bolac.

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Woman in Ibn Tulun.

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Portrait, Red Sea.

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Young man near the Nile in Anater.

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Amr Ibrahim dressed as a fellah (Egyptian farmer) (30 km north of Cairo).

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Amir"s mother in her castle in Sin de Bis, 30 km north of Cairo

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Ismail in Amr Sinedebis" castle.

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Photography studio in Bolac district.

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Developing an early warning system for crises [209 KB]: By Helene Lavoix and IFRI

On the indicators of potential conflict [82 KB]: By Syed Mansoo Murshed

Improving early warning and response systems [351 KB]: By Albrecht Schnabel

Making sense of the turmoil in the muslim world [60 KB]: By Anoushivaran Ehteshami

Lessons from the struggle against Al Qaeda [71 KB]: By Paul Wilkinson

Formalising the informal while neglecting trade transparency [106 KB]: By Nikos Passas

Transforming the EUs approach to outreach and technical assistance [81 KB]: By Sibylle Bauer and John Mattiussi

For a consistent policy in the struggle against proliferation networks [85 KB]: By Guillaume Schlumberger and Bruno Gruselle

Photo reportage - Afghanistan - the time of the Hazaras [2 MB]: By David Sauveur

On the road between Band-Al-Amir and Bamyan, a wreck of a Russian tank.

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This area is renown as one of the most beautiful in Afghanistan: the suspension lakes of Band-Al-Amir, formed by natural dams. The legend says that the formation is due to miracles carried out by the Imam Ali, considered as a saint by the Shiite people.

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Wrecks in Kabul bus station.

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The king"s palace destroyed during the civil war.

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Near the Omar Museum, a man does his first prayer in front of a plane wreck.

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Day Kundi Province, at a general store near the cemetery. Background: a mausoleum built around the grave of a saint.

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Volleyball game outside a general store.

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This area is renown as one of the most beautiful in Afghanistan: the suspension lakes of Band-Al-Amir, formed by natural dams. The legend says that the formation is due to miracles carried out by the Imam Ali, considered as a saint by the Shiite people.

[345 KB]

In a hamlet on the road between Nili and Yakawlang, at the first winter snowfall. A family clears off the snow of their house cob roof.

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Northern Hazaradjat. Afghan people call it the "City of Murmurs". Formerly a place for pilgrimage and Buddhist retreat. Bamyan sheltered the giant Buddha which was sculpted in the cliffs and has been destroyed by the Taliban.

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Outside the general store.

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In the 16th district, near the animal market, on the road to Kandahar. Many Hazara people are gathered in this recently built district. The constructions are anarchically built without infrastructure, electricity, or water.

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At the top of the "TV Hill".

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Interview - Aiding Afghanistan [62 KB]: By Bettina Muscheidt

Early warning and the responsibility to prevent conflicts [85 KB]: By Nick Grono

Conflict early warning systems and support of the comprehensive peace agreement in Sudan [273 KB]: By Jakkie Cilliers

Photo reportage - The children of sorrow [2 MB]: By Alvaro Ybarra Zavala

A group of Internally Displaced People fleeing the genocide in Darfur.

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A girl running away from the genocide in Darfur. She survived a storm in the middle of the desert.

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Bahai refugee camp.

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Thousands of villages have been destroyed by the Janjaweed across the border with Chad.

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A boy running away from the genocide in Darfur. He survived a storm in the middle of the desert.

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All the refugee camps set up in Chad are full of war orphans.

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A group of Internally Displaced People are fleeing the genocide in Darfur.

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A refugee convoy will take all these people to the Bahai refugee camp.

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Child soldier members of the SLA, one of the rebel groups against the government in Khartoum.

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Members of the SLA, one of the rebel groups against the government in Khartoum.

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Member of the SLA.

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Members of the SLA, one of the rebel groups against the government in Khartoum.

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Child soldier members of the SLA, one of the rebel groups against the government in Khartoum.

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Part 5: Annex

Annex [112 KB]: By

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